European Pro League Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
67%60%
BIG Academy · 5 mapsedge BIG Academy +7%Kinoa · 1 map
Dust2BIG Academy ban
56%40%
BIG Academy · 5 mapsedge BIG Academy +16%Kinoa · 1 map
OverpassKinoa ban
75%40%
BIG Academy · 4 mapsedge BIG Academy +35%Kinoa · 1 map
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%40%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%Kinoa · 1 map
MirageKinoa pick
50%60%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsedge Kinoa +10%Kinoa · 1 map
AnubisKinoa ban
50%50%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Kinoa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
2. BanKinoa remove Overpass
3. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
4. PickKinoa take Mirage
5. BanKinoa remove Anubis
6. BanBIG Academy remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:5
BIG Academy 84%Kinoa 16%
The model gave 84% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Dust2prediction correct22:19
BIG Academy 62%Kinoa 38%
The model gave 62% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 74%
Series resultBIG Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2