CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
52%52%
Noir Verse · 19 mapsnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 17 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
43%68%
Noir Verse · 17 mapsedge Fire Flux +25%Fire Flux · 15 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
58%50%
Noir Verse · 20 mapsedge Noir Verse +8%Fire Flux · 12 maps
CacheNoir Verse ban
50%59%
Noir Verse · 14 mapsedge Fire Flux +9%Fire Flux · 13 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
50%43%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Fire Flux · 10 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
53%25%
Noir Verse · 15 mapsedge Noir Verse +28%Fire Flux · 4 maps
DefaultFire Flux ban
41%50%
Noir Verse · 13 mapsedge Fire Flux +9%Fire Flux · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Default
6. BanNoir Verse remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (52% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed1:13
Noir Verse 60%Fire Flux 40%
The model gave 60% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
Noir Verse 23%Fire Flux 77%
The model gave 77% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Noir Verse 50%Fire Flux 50%
The model gave 50% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 55%
Series resultFire Flux 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3