NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#173 in the world · win 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMAYBE pick
50%64%
MAYBE · 12 mapsedge Noir Verse +14%Noir Verse · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%50%
MAYBE · 8 mapsedge Noir Verse +8%Noir Verse · 18 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
36%50%
MAYBE · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +14%Noir Verse · 14 maps
CacheNoir Verse pick
40%50%
MAYBE · 6 mapsedge Noir Verse +10%Noir Verse · 14 maps
AnubisMAYBE ban
43%45%
MAYBE · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Noir Verse · 16 maps
DefaultNoir Verse ban
60%41%
MAYBE · 1 mapedge MAYBE +19%Noir Verse · 13 maps
NukeMAYBE ban
43%50%
MAYBE · 3 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Noir Verse · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Nuke
2. BanNoir Verse remove Default
3. PickMAYBE take Mirage
4. PickNoir Verse take Cache
5. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
6. BanMAYBE remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
MAYBE 39%Noir Verse 61%
The model gave 61% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
MAYBE 45%Noir Verse 55%
The model gave 55% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 66%
Series resultMAYBE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2