NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lavked pick
52%57%
Lavked · 25 mapsedge Fire Flux +5%Fire Flux · 19 maps
Miragepossible decider
39%56%
Lavked · 24 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%Fire Flux · 14 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
50%67%
Lavked · 12 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%Fire Flux · 17 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
45%47%
Lavked · 18 mapsnearly even -2%Fire Flux · 11 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
41%25%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Lavked +16%Fire Flux · 4 maps
InfernoLavked ban
36%67%
Lavked · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +31%Fire Flux · 11 maps
CacheLavked ban
40%59%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +19%Fire Flux · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Dust2
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
6. BanLavked remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (39% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Lavked 20%Fire Flux 80%
The model gave 80% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Lavked 52%Fire Flux 48%
The model gave 52% on Lavked — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 54%
Series resultFire Flux 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2