NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
6666#80 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Anubispossible decider
53%58%
Misa · 26 mapsedge 6666 +5%6666 · 8 maps
Dust2Misa pick
50%56%
Misa · 28 mapsedge 6666 +6%6666 · 5 maps
Cache6666 ban
43%50%
Misa · 26 mapsedge 6666 +7%6666 · 0 maps
Mirage6666 pick
44%67%
Misa · 21 mapedge 6666 +23%6666 · 5 maps
Inferno6666 ban
58%17%
Misa · 15 mapsedge Misa +41%6666 · 8 maps
NukeMisa ban
45%50%
Misa · 18 mapsedge 6666 +5%6666 · 2 maps
AncientMisa ban
38%55%
Misa · 4 mapsedge 6666 +17%6666 · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. Ban6666 remove Cache
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. Pick6666 take Mirage
5. Ban6666 remove Inferno
6. BanMisa remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (53% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Misa 89%6666 11%
The model gave 89% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Misa 31%6666 69%
The model gave 69% on 6666 — the map was taken by 6666.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Misa 45%6666 55%
The model gave 55% on 6666 — the map was taken by 6666.
Model check result
Model favorite6666 · 55%
Series result6666 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3