BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
69%63%
ex-RUBY · 9 mapsedge ex-RUBY +6%Ursa · 12 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
82%36%
ex-RUBY · 7 mapsedge ex-RUBY +46%Ursa · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
55%50%
ex-RUBY · 7 mapsedge ex-RUBY +5%Ursa · 6 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
50%38%
ex-RUBY · 6 mapsedge ex-RUBY +12%Ursa · 4 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%36%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +14%Ursa · 7 maps
AncientUrsa ban
40%50%
ex-RUBY · 6 mapsedge Ursa +10%Ursa · 0 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
60%50%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +10%Ursa · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanUrsa remove Ancient
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickUrsa take Dust2
5. BanUrsa remove Overpass
6. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed15:19
ex-RUBY 54%Ursa 46%
The model gave 54% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by Ursa.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
ex-RUBY 90%Ursa 10%
The model gave 90% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Mirageprediction missed19:22
ex-RUBY 55%Ursa 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 54%
Series resultUrsa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3