FRAG University 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 16:14series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 16:14
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · loss 14:16The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
64%68%
Imperial · 24 mapsnearly even -4%SportsBetExpert · 15 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert ban
72%84%
Imperial · 21 mapedge SportsBetExpert +12%SportsBetExpert · 15 maps
NukeImperial ban
68%75%
Imperial · 18 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
56%50%
Imperial · 14 mapsedge Imperial +6%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
65%38%
Imperial · 13 mapsedge Imperial +27%SportsBetExpert · 9 maps
AnubisSportsBetExpert ban
58%58%
Imperial · 8 mapsnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
DefaultImperial ban
50%40%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge Imperial +10%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Dust2
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
3. BanImperial remove Default
4. BanSportsBetExpert remove Anubis
5. BanImperial remove Nuke
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (64% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
Imperial 33%SportsBetExpert 67%
The model gave 67% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 57%
Series resultImperial 16:14
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1