FRAG University 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · win 13:6series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 13:6
Unreal Nightmare#382 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheUnreal Nightmare ban
67%40%
NRG · 14 mapsedge NRG +27%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
MirageNRG ban
46%43%
NRG · 9 mapsnearly even +3%Unreal Nightmare · 3 maps
InfernoNRG ban
46%50%
NRG · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Unreal Nightmare · 2 maps
AncientUnreal Nightmare ban
55%43%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +12%Unreal Nightmare · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
73%40%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +33%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Dust2Unreal Nightmare ban
70%50%
NRG · 6 mapsedge NRG +20%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
DefaultNRG ban
50%40%
NRG · 0 mapsedge NRG +10%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Mirage
2. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Dust2
3. BanNRG remove Default
4. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Cache
5. BanNRG remove Inferno
6. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (73% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
NRG 80%Unreal Nightmare 20%
The model gave 80% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 91%
Series resultNRG 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1