FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LDLast Dance USloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWithout a Roof pick
64%50%
Without a Roof · 18 mapsedge Without a Roof +14%Last Dance US · 0 maps
InfernoLast Dance US ban
70%50%
Without a Roof · 16 mapsedge Without a Roof +20%Last Dance US · 0 maps
AncientLast Dance US pick
53%50%
Without a Roof · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Last Dance US · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%40%
Without a Roof · 10 mapsedge Without a Roof +17%Last Dance US · 1 map
NukeLast Dance US ban
58%50%
Without a Roof · 8 mapsedge Without a Roof +8%Last Dance US · 0 maps
CacheWithout a Roof ban
57%50%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%Last Dance US · 0 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%50%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +10%Last Dance US · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanLast Dance US remove Inferno
3. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
4. PickLast Dance US take Ancient
5. BanLast Dance US remove Nuke
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Without a Roof 64%Last Dance US 36%
The model gave 64% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Last Dance US.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Without a Roof 66%Last Dance US 34%
The model gave 66% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Without a Roof 53%Last Dance US 47%
The model gave 53% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 74%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3