FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionHCHoly Cannoliloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Unreal Nightmare#382 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUnreal Nightmare ban
50%43%
Holy Cannoli · 0 mapsedge Holy Cannoli +7%Unreal Nightmare · 3 maps
MirageUnreal Nightmare pick
50%43%
Holy Cannoli · 0 mapsedge Holy Cannoli +7%Unreal Nightmare · 3 maps
InfernoHoly Cannoli ban
50%50%
Holy Cannoli · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Unreal Nightmare · 2 maps
NukeHoly Cannoli pick
50%33%
Holy Cannoli · 0 mapsedge Holy Cannoli +17%Unreal Nightmare · 2 maps
CacheUnreal Nightmare ban
50%40%
Holy Cannoli · 0 mapsedge Holy Cannoli +10%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
DefaultHoly Cannoli ban
50%40%
Holy Cannoli · 0 mapsedge Holy Cannoli +10%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHoly Cannoli remove Inferno
2. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Cache
3. PickHoly Cannoli take Nuke
4. PickUnreal Nightmare take Mirage
5. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Ancient
6. BanHoly Cannoli remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Holy Cannoli 60%Unreal Nightmare 40%
The model gave 60% on Holy Cannoli — the map was taken by Unreal Nightmare.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Holy Cannoli 47%Unreal Nightmare 53%
The model gave 53% on Unreal Nightmare — the map was taken by Unreal Nightmare.
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Cannoli · 60%
Series resultUnreal Nightmare 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2