FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NRG#30 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNRG ban
64%46%
Imperial · 24 mapsedge Imperial +18%NRG · 9 maps
MirageImperial pick
73%47%
Imperial · 22 mapsedge Imperial +26%NRG · 11 maps
CacheNRG pick
61%63%
Imperial · 14 mapsnearly even -2%NRG · 15 maps
Nukepossible decider
70%77%
Imperial · 19 mapsedge NRG +7%NRG · 9 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
58%70%
Imperial · 15 mapsedge NRG +12%NRG · 6 maps
AnubisNRG ban
58%50%
Imperial · 8 mapsedge Imperial +8%NRG · 0 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%55%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge NRG +5%NRG · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanNRG remove Anubis
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickNRG take Cache
5. BanNRG remove Inferno
6. BanImperial remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (70% / 77%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Imperial 70%NRG 30%
The model gave 70% on Imperial — the map was taken by NRG.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Imperial 34%NRG 66%
The model gave 66% on NRG — the map was taken by Imperial.
Nukeprediction missed16:13
Imperial 41%NRG 59%
The model gave 59% on NRG — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 62%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3