NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFire Flux pick
67%56%
Fire Flux · 17 mapsedge Fire Flux +11%Gothic · 5 maps
Dust2Gothic pick
57%50%
Fire Flux · 19 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%Gothic · 2 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
56%43%
Fire Flux · 14 mapsedge Fire Flux +13%Gothic · 3 maps
CacheGothic ban
59%50%
Fire Flux · 13 mapsedge Fire Flux +9%Gothic · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
69%60%
Fire Flux · 12 mapsedge Fire Flux +9%Gothic · 1 map
NukeGothic ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Gothic · 0 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
25%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Gothic +25%Gothic · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanGothic remove Nuke
3. PickFire Flux take Anubis
4. PickGothic take Dust2
5. BanGothic remove Cache
6. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (69% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
Fire Flux 59%Gothic 41%
The model gave 59% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Fire Flux 53%Gothic 47%
The model gave 53% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 61%
Series resultFire Flux 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2