WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Athlonloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%47%
Athlon · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Oxuji · 11 maps
NukeOxuji pick
50%73%
Athlon · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +23%Oxuji · 11 maps
InfernoAthlon pick
50%27%
Athlon · 0 mapsedge Athlon +23%Oxuji · 7 maps
AncientAthlon ban
50%56%
Athlon · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +6%Oxuji · 5 maps
DefaultAthlon ban
50%75%
Athlon · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +25%Oxuji · 4 maps
MirageOxuji ban
50%63%
Athlon · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +13%Oxuji · 4 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
50%43%
Athlon · 0 mapsedge Athlon +7%Oxuji · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAthlon remove Default
2. BanOxuji remove Anubis
3. PickAthlon take Inferno
4. PickOxuji take Nuke
5. BanOxuji remove Mirage
6. BanAthlon remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Athlon 40%Oxuji 60%
The model gave 60% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
Athlon 42%Oxuji 58%
The model gave 58% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteOxuji · 65%
Series resultOxuji 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2