NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
RUSTEC#124 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Entropy ban
43%50%
RUSTEC · 3 mapsedge Entropy +7%Entropy · 0 maps
InfernoRUSTEC pick
67%50%
RUSTEC · 2 mapsedge RUSTEC +17%Entropy · 0 maps
MirageEntropy ban
50%50%
RUSTEC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 0 maps
AncientRUSTEC ban
50%60%
RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 1 map
AnubisEntropy pick
50%60%
RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickRUSTEC take Inferno
4. PickEntropy take Anubis
5. BanEntropy remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
RUSTEC 53%Entropy 47%
The model gave 53% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by RUSTEC.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
RUSTEC 47%Entropy 53%
The model gave 53% on Entropy — the map was taken by RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteRUSTEC · 70%
Series resultRUSTEC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2