WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Oxuji#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Oxuji · 10 maps
NukeOxuji pick
43%73%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Oxuji +30%Oxuji · 11 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
50%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Oxuji +6%Oxuji · 5 maps
InfernoOxuji ban
67%27%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +40%Oxuji · 7 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
56%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Oxuji · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
71%63%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +8%Oxuji · 4 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%75%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +25%Oxuji · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
2. BanOxuji remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickOxuji take Nuke
5. BanOxuji remove Inferno
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (71% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Nuclear TigeRES 47%Oxuji 53%
The model gave 53% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct16:12
Nuclear TigeRES 58%Oxuji 42%
The model gave 58% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 70%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2