PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
BET-M#62 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 8:13
PRIVATE#66 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
32%75%
BET-M · 15 mapsedge PRIVATE +43%PRIVATE · 4 maps
NukePRIVATE ban
52%50%
BET-M · 17 mapsnearly even +2%PRIVATE · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
47%50%
BET-M · 15 mapsnearly even -3%PRIVATE · 2 maps
MirageBET-M ban
53%75%
BET-M · 13 mapsedge PRIVATE +22%PRIVATE · 4 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
63%50%
BET-M · 15 mapsedge BET-M +13%PRIVATE · 0 maps
AnubisPRIVATE ban
50%50%
BET-M · 8 mapsnearly even +0%PRIVATE · 2 maps
CacheBET-M ban
50%33%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +17%PRIVATE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Cache
2. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
3. BanBET-M remove Ancient
4. BanPRIVATE remove Anubis
5. BanBET-M remove Mirage
6. BanPRIVATE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
BET-M 47%PRIVATE 53%
The model gave 53% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 57%
Series resultPRIVATE 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1