PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 13:9series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 13:9
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
63%68%
Nuclear TigeRES · 20 mapsedge Just Players +5%Just Players · 33 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
44%45%
Nuclear TigeRES · 23 mapsnearly even -1%Just Players · 27 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%59%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Just Players +37%Just Players · 45 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
43%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsnearly even +3%Just Players · 21 map
AnubisJust Players ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 18 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 10 maps
CacheJust Players ban
56%30%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +26%Just Players · 16 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
74%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +24%Just Players · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanJust Players remove Inferno
3. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
4. BanJust Players remove Cache
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
6. BanJust Players remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (63% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 44%Just Players 56%
The model gave 56% on Just Players — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 78%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1