PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 11:13series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 11:13
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 13:11The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
61%68%
GenOne · 32 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Butterfly · 15 maps
AncientButterfly ban
58%59%
GenOne · 20 mapsnearly even -1%Butterfly · 13 maps
NukeGenOne ban
44%57%
GenOne · 14 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Butterfly · 17 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
63%21%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge GenOne +42%Butterfly · 15 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%65%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +15%Butterfly · 13 maps
CacheGenOne ban
33%63%
GenOne · 8 mapsedge Butterfly +30%Butterfly · 4 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
86%40%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +46%Butterfly · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. BanGenOne remove Cache
4. BanButterfly remove Inferno
5. BanGenOne remove Nuke
6. BanButterfly remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (61% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
GenOne 38%Butterfly 62%
The model gave 63% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 57%
Series resultButterfly 11:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1