PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 13:11series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 13:11
Omega#148 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
53%61%
UPGRADE · 11 mapsedge Omega +8%Omega · 14 maps
AnubisOmega ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 17 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%Omega · 0 maps
AncientOmega ban
70%36%
UPGRADE · 6 mapsedge UPGRADE +34%Omega · 7 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
38%55%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge Omega +17%Omega · 7 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
42%57%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsedge Omega +15%Omega · 3 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
33%50%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge Omega +17%Omega · 4 maps
InfernoOmega ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%Omega · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. BanOmega remove Anubis
3. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
4. BanOmega remove Ancient
5. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
6. BanOmega remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (53% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
UPGRADE 42%Omega 58%
The model gave 58% on Omega — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 69%
Series resultUPGRADE 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1