CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#106 in the world · win 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Illyrians#126 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBAKS pick
65%69%
BAKS · 30 mapsnearly even -4%Illyrians · 12 maps
Dust2Illyrians pick
41%43%
BAKS · 18 mapsnearly even -2%Illyrians · 19 maps
MirageBAKS ban
71%54%
BAKS · 10 mapsedge BAKS +17%Illyrians · 22 maps
Ancientpossible decider
64%50%
BAKS · 7 mapsedge BAKS +14%Illyrians · 12 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
42%40%
BAKS · 15 mapsnearly even +2%Illyrians · 1 map
InfernoIllyrians ban
29%50%
BAKS · 10 mapsedge Illyrians +21%Illyrians · 2 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%70%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge Illyrians +20%Illyrians · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickIllyrians take Dust2
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. BanBAKS remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
BAKS 48%Illyrians 52%
The model gave 52% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
BAKS 44%Illyrians 56%
The model gave 56% on Illyrians — the map was taken by BAKS.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
BAKS 64%Illyrians 36%
The model gave 64% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 64%
Series resultBAKS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3