BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
55%64%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge Lavked +9%Lavked · 21 map
Dust2possible decider
43%42%
fnatic · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Lavked · 15 maps
Infernofnatic pick
70%31%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +39%Lavked · 9 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%63%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Lavked +13%Lavked · 15 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
50%77%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge Lavked +27%Lavked · 9 maps
AnubisLavked ban
50%38%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +12%Lavked · 4 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. Banfnatic remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (43% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
fnatic 37%Lavked 63%
The model gave 63% on Lavked — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
fnatic 65%Lavked 35%
The model gave 65% on fnatic — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
fnatic 51%Lavked 49%
The model gave 51% on fnatic — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 56%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3