Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MANA#86 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MANA ban
44%63%
MANA · 5 mapsedge Hashiras +19%Hashiras · 4 maps
NukeMANA pick
60%40%
MANA · 1 mapedge MANA +20%Hashiras · 6 maps
AnubisHashiras pick
57%57%
MANA · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Hashiras · 3 maps
MirageHashiras ban
40%50%
MANA · 6 mapsedge Hashiras +10%Hashiras · 0 maps
AncientHashiras ban
29%40%
MANA · 3 mapsedge Hashiras +11%Hashiras · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%33%
MANA · 2 mapsedge MANA +17%Hashiras · 2 maps
OverpassMANA ban
40%40%
MANA · 1 mapnearly even +0%Hashiras · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMANA remove Overpass
2. BanHashiras remove Mirage
3. PickMANA take Nuke
4. PickHashiras take Anubis
5. BanHashiras remove Ancient
6. BanMANA remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
MANA 35%Hashiras 65%
The model gave 65% on Hashiras — the map was taken by Hashiras.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
MANA 67%Hashiras 33%
The model gave 67% on MANA — the map was taken by Hashiras.
Model check result
Model favoriteMANA · 56%
Series resultHashiras 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2