CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PRIVATE#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Honvéd#209 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
57%41%
PRIVATE · 3 mapsedge PRIVATE +16%Honvéd · 33 maps
MiragePRIVATE pick
78%42%
PRIVATE · 5 mapsedge PRIVATE +36%Honvéd · 27 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
50%42%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge PRIVATE +8%Honvéd · 15 maps
AncientHonvéd ban
75%43%
PRIVATE · 4 mapsedge PRIVATE +32%Honvéd · 10 maps
CachePRIVATE ban
29%40%
PRIVATE · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +11%Honvéd · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%59%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +9%Honvéd · 13 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
50%36%
PRIVATE · 2 mapsedge PRIVATE +14%Honvéd · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. PickPRIVATE take Mirage
4. PickHonvéd take Dust2
5. BanHonvéd remove Ancient
6. BanPRIVATE remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
PRIVATE 35%Honvéd 65%
The model gave 65% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
PRIVATE 82%Honvéd 18%
The model gave 82% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
PRIVATE 66%Honvéd 34%
The model gave 66% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoritePRIVATE · 69%
Series resultPRIVATE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3