Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Strael Bora#239 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invicta#225 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoInvicta pick
40%60%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Invicta +20%Invicta · 1 map
AncientStrael Bora pick
40%50%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Invicta +10%Invicta · 0 maps
MirageStrael Bora ban
50%60%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Invicta +10%Invicta · 1 map
NukeInvicta ban
60%50%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge Strael Bora +10%Invicta · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStrael Bora remove Mirage
2. BanInvicta remove Nuke
3. PickStrael Bora take Ancient
4. PickInvicta take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Strael Bora 37%Invicta 63%
The model gave 63% on Invicta — the map was taken by Strael Bora.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Strael Bora 63%Invicta 37%
The model gave 63% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Strael Bora.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvicta · 53%
Series resultStrael Bora 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2