Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
aimclub#94 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 6:13
BASEMENT BOYS#93 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
62%65%
aimclub · 9 mapsnearly even -3%BASEMENT BOYS · 16 maps
Ancientaimclub ban
30%45%
aimclub · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +15%BASEMENT BOYS · 18 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS ban
42%56%
aimclub · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
Cacheaimclub ban
44%44%
aimclub · 5 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
50%56%
aimclub · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%56%
aimclub · 6 mapsnearly even +4%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
64%40%
aimclub · 7 mapsedge aimclub +24%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banaimclub remove Nuke
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. Banaimclub remove Ancient
4. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
5. Banaimclub remove Cache
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (62% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
aimclub 46%BASEMENT BOYS 54%
The model gave 54% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 59%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 6:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1