Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
WBT#91 in the world · win 13:8series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 13:8
Nexus#146 in the world · loss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Anubispossible decider
50%56%
WBT · 18 mapsedge Nexus +6%Nexus · 12 maps
Dust2Nexus ban
59%50%
WBT · 13 mapsedge WBT +9%Nexus · 12 maps
AncientWBT ban
53%67%
WBT · 13 mapsedge Nexus +14%Nexus · 5 maps
CacheWBT ban
31%50%
WBT · 9 mapsedge Nexus +19%Nexus · 8 maps
MirageNexus ban
50%56%
WBT · 10 mapsedge Nexus +6%Nexus · 5 maps
NukeNexus ban
57%40%
WBT · 10 mapsedge WBT +17%Nexus · 1 map
InfernoWBT ban
50%44%
WBT · 2 mapsedge WBT +6%Nexus · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. BanWBT remove Cache
4. BanNexus remove Mirage
5. BanWBT remove Ancient
6. BanNexus remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
WBT 44%Nexus 56%
The model gave 56% on Nexus — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 61%
Series resultWBT 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1