Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
Sashi#97 in the world · win 13:9series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 13:9
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%57%
Sashi · 18 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%MOUZ NXT · 26 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT ban
60%42%
Sashi · 16 mapsedge Sashi +18%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
40%38%
Sashi · 11 mapsnearly even +2%MOUZ NXT · 20 maps
AncientSashi ban
43%56%
Sashi · 10 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +13%MOUZ NXT · 12 maps
MirageSashi ban
33%30%
Sashi · 2 mapsnearly even +3%MOUZ NXT · 16 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
Sashi · 10 mapsedge Sashi +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
67%44%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +23%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. BanSashi remove Dust2
4. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
5. BanSashi remove Ancient
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Cache
DeciderNuke (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Sashi 43%MOUZ NXT 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 59%
Series resultSashi 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1