Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Drama#142 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nexus#146 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Drama ban
33%50%
Drama · 5 mapsedge Nexus +17%Nexus · 12 maps
AnubisDrama ban
33%53%
Drama · 2 mapsedge Nexus +20%Nexus · 13 maps
MirageNexus ban
55%56%
Drama · 7 mapsnearly even -1%Nexus · 5 maps
AncientDrama pick
60%67%
Drama · 6 mapsedge Nexus +7%Nexus · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
30%44%
Drama · 6 mapsedge Nexus +14%Nexus · 5 maps
CacheNexus ban
60%50%
Drama · 1 mapedge Drama +10%Nexus · 8 maps
DefaultNexus pick
57%75%
Drama · 3 mapsedge Nexus +18%Nexus · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDrama remove Anubis
2. BanNexus remove Mirage
3. PickDrama take Ancient
4. PickNexus take Default
5. BanNexus remove Cache
6. BanDrama remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (30% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
Drama 57%Nexus 43%
The model gave 57% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Drama 52%Nexus 48%
The model gave 52% on Drama — the map was taken by Nexus.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
Drama 43%Nexus 57%
The model gave 57% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrama · 50%
Series resultNexus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3