Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionBBayankhongorloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Leo#83 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%37%
Bayankhongor · 0 mapsedge Bayankhongor +13%Leo · 31 map
NukeBayankhongor ban
50%88%
Bayankhongor · 0 mapsedge Leo +38%Leo · 30 maps
AncientBayankhongor ban
50%40%
Bayankhongor · 0 mapsedge Bayankhongor +10%Leo · 21 map
CacheLeo pick
50%55%
Bayankhongor · 0 mapsedge Leo +5%Leo · 18 maps
MirageLeo ban
50%35%
Bayankhongor · 0 mapsedge Bayankhongor +15%Leo · 13 maps
AnubisLeo ban
40%33%
Bayankhongor · 1 mapedge Bayankhongor +7%Leo · 11 maps
DefaultBayankhongor pick
50%22%
Bayankhongor · 0 mapsedge Bayankhongor +28%Leo · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBayankhongor remove Nuke
2. BanLeo remove Mirage
3. PickBayankhongor take Default
4. PickLeo take Cache
5. BanLeo remove Anubis
6. BanBayankhongor remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 37%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed0:13
Bayankhongor 63%Leo 37%
The model gave 63% on Bayankhongor — the map was taken by Leo.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
Bayankhongor 60%Leo 40%
The model gave 60% on Bayankhongor — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 74%
Series resultLeo 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2