Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#93 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
aimclub#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBASEMENT BOYS pick
67%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 17 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%aimclub · 11 maps
Ancientaimclub ban
43%36%
BASEMENT BOYS · 19 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%aimclub · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
56%38%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +18%aimclub · 9 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
44%44%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsnearly even +0%aimclub · 5 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
56%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%aimclub · 0 maps
Anubisaimclub pick
56%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsnearly even -4%aimclub · 6 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%64%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge aimclub +24%aimclub · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. Banaimclub remove Nuke
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Mirage
4. Pickaimclub take Anubis
5. Banaimclub remove Ancient
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (56% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
BASEMENT BOYS 60%aimclub 40%
The model gave 60% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
BASEMENT BOYS 65%aimclub 35%
The model gave 65% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 65%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2