Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#104 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leo#83 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLeo pick
54%88%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge Leo +34%Leo · 30 maps
Dust2possible decider
30%39%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsedge Leo +9%Leo · 32 maps
AncientASTRAL pick
56%42%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsedge ASTRAL +14%Leo · 22 maps
CacheASTRAL ban
45%55%
ASTRAL · 7 mapsedge Leo +10%Leo · 18 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
38%35%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Leo · 13 maps
AnubisLeo ban
43%33%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%Leo · 11 maps
DefaultLeo ban
67%22%
ASTRAL · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +45%Leo · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
2. BanLeo remove Anubis
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickLeo take Nuke
5. BanLeo remove Default
6. BanASTRAL remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (30% / 39%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
ASTRAL 37%Leo 63%
The model gave 63% on Leo — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
ASTRAL 66%Leo 34%
The model gave 66% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Leo.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
ASTRAL 41%Leo 59%
The model gave 59% on Leo — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 63%
Series resultASTRAL 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3