PGL Bucharest 2027 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
54%69%
Nemesis · 22 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +15%Nuclear TigeRES · 25 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
55%50%
Nemesis · 18 mapsedge Nemesis +5%Nuclear TigeRES · 26 maps
Infernopossible decider
72%71%
Nemesis · 14 mapsnearly even +1%Nuclear TigeRES · 17 maps
NukeNemesis pick
69%47%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +22%Nuclear TigeRES · 15 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%56%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Nuclear TigeRES · 23 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
38%30%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +8%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
67%60%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (72% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Nemesis 32%Nuclear TigeRES 68%
The model gave 68% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
Nemesis 73%Nuclear TigeRES 27%
The model gave 73% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Nemesis 55%Nuclear TigeRES 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 54%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3