Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Envy#22 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INFINITE#78 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEnvy ban
50%55%
Envy · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +5%INFINITE · 18 maps
AncientEnvy ban
29%44%
Envy · 3 mapsedge INFINITE +15%INFINITE · 14 maps
Dust2Envy pick
50%26%
Envy · 0 mapsedge Envy +24%INFINITE · 15 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
60%38%
Envy · 1 mapedge Envy +22%INFINITE · 9 maps
Cachepossible decider
33%50%
Envy · 2 mapsedge INFINITE +17%INFINITE · 6 maps
NukeINFINITE ban
50%42%
Envy · 0 mapsedge Envy +8%INFINITE · 8 maps
DefaultINFINITE pick
50%71%
Envy · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +21%INFINITE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEnvy remove Mirage
2. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
3. PickEnvy take Dust2
4. PickINFINITE take Default
5. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
6. BanEnvy remove Ancient
DeciderCache (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Envy 31%INFINITE 69%
The model gave 69% on INFINITE — the map was taken by Envy.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
Envy 76%INFINITE 24%
The model gave 76% on Envy — the map was taken by Envy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEnvy · 76%
Series resultEnvy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2