Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#64 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nexus#146 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisNexus pick
54%56%
SAW · 9 mapsnearly even -2%Nexus · 14 maps
CacheNexus ban
73%46%
SAW · 11 mapsedge SAW +27%Nexus · 9 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%50%
SAW · 5 mapsedge Nexus +17%Nexus · 14 maps
InfernoSAW pick
76%50%
SAW · 13 mapsedge SAW +26%Nexus · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
54%67%
SAW · 9 mapsedge Nexus +13%Nexus · 8 maps
NukeNexus ban
54%40%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +14%Nexus · 1 map
MirageSAW ban
50%60%
SAW · 0 mapsedge Nexus +10%Nexus · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. PickSAW take Inferno
4. PickNexus take Anubis
5. BanNexus remove Cache
6. BanSAW remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (54% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
SAW 79%Nexus 21%
The model gave 79% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
SAW 45%Nexus 55%
The model gave 55% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
SAW 37%Nexus 63%
The model gave 63% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 62%
Series resultNexus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3