Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FaZe#18 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientHEROIC pick
67%42%
HEROIC · 17 mapsedge HEROIC +25%FaZe · 8 maps
Dust2FaZe ban
57%42%
HEROIC · 17 mapsedge HEROIC +15%FaZe · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%58%
HEROIC · 14 mapsedge HEROIC +9%FaZe · 8 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
53%58%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge FaZe +5%FaZe · 8 maps
NukeFaZe pick
77%75%
HEROIC · 9 mapsnearly even +2%FaZe · 8 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
70%50%
HEROIC · 16 mapsedge HEROIC +20%FaZe · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%44%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +6%FaZe · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanFaZe remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Ancient
4. PickFaZe take Nuke
5. BanFaZe remove Dust2
6. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
DeciderCache (67% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
HEROIC 42%FaZe 58%
The model gave 58% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
HEROIC 76%FaZe 24%
The model gave 76% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
HEROIC 53%FaZe 47%
The model gave 53% on HEROIC — the map was taken by FaZe.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 59%
Series resultFaZe 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3