European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Oramond#119 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Project 91#160 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageProject 91 pick
43%57%
Oramond · 3 mapsedge Project 91 +14%Project 91 · 3 maps
AnubisOramond pick
57%50%
Oramond · 3 mapsedge Oramond +7%Project 91 · 2 maps
Dust2Project 91 ban
50%40%
Oramond · 4 mapsedge Oramond +10%Project 91 · 1 map
AncientOramond ban
50%50%
Oramond · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Project 91 · 4 maps
NukeOramond ban
33%50%
Oramond · 2 mapsedge Project 91 +17%Project 91 · 2 maps
InfernoProject 91 ban
50%40%
Oramond · 0 mapsedge Oramond +10%Project 91 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOramond remove Ancient
2. BanProject 91 remove Dust2
3. PickOramond take Anubis
4. PickProject 91 take Mirage
5. BanProject 91 remove Inferno
6. BanOramond remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Oramond 57%Project 91 43%
The model gave 57% on Oramond — the map was taken by Oramond.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Oramond 39%Project 91 61%
The model gave 61% on Project 91 — the map was taken by Oramond.
Model check result
Model favoriteProject 91 · 52%
Series resultOramond 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2