European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
67%60%
GenOne · 17 mapsedge GenOne +7%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Nukebrazylijski luz ban
53%50%
GenOne · 15 mapsnearly even +3%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Ancientbrazylijski luz pick
46%60%
GenOne · 9 mapsedge brazylijski luz +14%brazylijski luz · 1 map
OverpassGenOne ban
36%50%
GenOne · 7 mapsedge brazylijski luz +14%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Infernobrazylijski luz ban
70%50%
GenOne · 6 mapsedge GenOne +20%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
50%50%
GenOne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
GenOne · 1 mapedge brazylijski luz +10%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Anubis
2. Banbrazylijski luz remove Inferno
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. Pickbrazylijski luz take Ancient
5. Banbrazylijski luz remove Nuke
6. BanGenOne remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
GenOne 40%brazylijski luz 60%
The model gave 60% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 68%
Series resultbrazylijski luz 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1