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BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
73%43%
Acend · 7 mapsedge Acend +30%Inner Circle · 3 maps
AncientAcend ban
50%40%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Acend +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
Dust2Inner Circle pick
43%60%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +17%Inner Circle · 1 map
OverpassInner Circle ban
50%60%
Acend · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Acend · 1 mapnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%50%
Acend · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 0 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%40%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickInner Circle take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
6. BanAcend remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Acend 80%Inner Circle 20%
The model gave 80% on Acend — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Acend 31%Inner Circle 69%
The model gave 69% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Acend.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Acend 60%Inner Circle 40%
The model gave 60% on Acend — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 51%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3