CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#203 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheDONSTU ban
30%36%
DONSTU · 6 mapsedge Banda Chuya +6%Banda Chuya · 7 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
40%44%
DONSTU · 1 mapnearly even -4%Banda Chuya · 12 maps
NukeBanda Chuya pick
33%42%
DONSTU · 5 mapsedge Banda Chuya +9%Banda Chuya · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%54%
DONSTU · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Banda Chuya · 9 maps
Dust2Banda Chuya ban
44%64%
DONSTU · 5 mapsedge Banda Chuya +20%Banda Chuya · 7 maps
AnubisBanda Chuya ban
42%43%
DONSTU · 8 mapsnearly even -1%Banda Chuya · 3 maps
DefaultDONSTU pick
60%50%
DONSTU · 1 mapedge DONSTU +10%Banda Chuya · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
2. BanBanda Chuya remove Anubis
3. PickDONSTU take Default
4. PickBanda Chuya take Nuke
5. BanBanda Chuya remove Dust2
6. BanDONSTU remove Cache
DeciderAncient (57% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
DONSTU 38%Banda Chuya 62%
The model gave 62% on Banda Chuya — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
DONSTU 52%Banda Chuya 48%
The model gave 52% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
DONSTU 31%Banda Chuya 69%
The model gave 69% on Banda Chuya — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 51%
Series resultDONSTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3