Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#39 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemesis#46 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemesis ban
40%54%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Nemesis · 24 maps
AncientNemesis pick
55%62%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +7%Nemesis · 22 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%72%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +12%Nemesis · 14 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
55%35%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +20%Nemesis · 13 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
44%61%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Nemesis · 14 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%80%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +30%Nemesis · 16 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
40%50%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +10%Nemesis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickInner Circle take Mirage
4. PickNemesis take Ancient
5. BanNemesis remove Dust2
6. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
DeciderCache (60% / 72%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Inner Circle 31%Nemesis 69%
The model gave 69% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Inner Circle 71%Nemesis 29%
The model gave 71% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 54%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2