Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#25 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Astralis#17 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
52%68%
magic · 19 mapsedge Astralis +16%Astralis · 15 maps
CacheAstralis pick
50%69%
magic · 6 mapsedge Astralis +19%Astralis · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%43%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +7%Astralis · 10 maps
Miragemagic ban
25%50%
magic · 8 mapsedge Astralis +25%Astralis · 8 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
54%33%
magic · 9 mapsedge magic +21%Astralis · 5 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
magic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Astralis · 10 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
38%33%
magic · 4 mapsedge magic +5%Astralis · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickAstralis take Cache
5. BanAstralis remove Dust2
6. Banmagic remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
magic 72%Astralis 28%
The model gave 72% on magic — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
magic 29%Astralis 71%
The model gave 71% on Astralis — the map was taken by magic.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
magic 33%Astralis 67%
The model gave 67% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 59%
Series resultAstralis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3