Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#33 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBIG pick
58%76%
BIG · 15 mapsedge fnatic +18%fnatic · 21 map
Ancientfnatic pick
42%63%
BIG · 8 mapsedge fnatic +21%fnatic · 20 maps
Infernopossible decider
62%61%
BIG · 9 mapsnearly even +1%fnatic · 14 maps
Miragefnatic ban
50%40%
BIG · 12 mapsedge BIG +10%fnatic · 11 maps
Dust2BIG ban
50%33%
BIG · 4 mapsedge BIG +17%fnatic · 11 maps
AnubisBIG ban
50%71%
BIG · 0 mapsedge fnatic +21%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
57%50%
BIG · 3 mapsedge BIG +7%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickBIG take Cache
4. Pickfnatic take Ancient
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanBIG remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (62% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
BIG 28%fnatic 72%
The model gave 72% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
BIG 53%fnatic 47%
The model gave 53% on BIG — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 61%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2