PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#5 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ#4 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ pick
61%75%
Aurora · 14 mapsedge MOUZ +14%MOUZ · 16 maps
Dust2MOUZ ban
57%61%
Aurora · 10 mapsnearly even -4%MOUZ · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%65%
Aurora · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +7%MOUZ · 13 maps
InfernoAurora ban
50%67%
Aurora · 12 mapsedge MOUZ +17%MOUZ · 8 maps
CacheAurora pick
62%45%
Aurora · 9 mapsedge Aurora +17%MOUZ · 7 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
69%50%
Aurora · 12 mapsedge Aurora +19%MOUZ · 0 maps
AncientAurora ban
40%38%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even +2%MOUZ · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
3. PickAurora take Cache
4. PickMOUZ take Mirage
5. BanMOUZ remove Dust2
6. BanAurora remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (58% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Aurora 32%MOUZ 68%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Cacheprediction missed2:13
Aurora 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 69%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2