Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MIBR#13 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMIBR ban
64%50%
fnatic · 21 mapedge fnatic +14%MIBR · 12 maps
Cachefnatic pick
76%64%
fnatic · 21 mapedge fnatic +12%MIBR · 10 maps
Infernofnatic ban
63%65%
fnatic · 15 mapsnearly even -2%MIBR · 13 maps
MirageMIBR pick
40%59%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge MIBR +19%MIBR · 13 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%57%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +14%MIBR · 3 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%53%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even -3%MIBR · 13 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
33%50%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. Pickfnatic take Cache
4. PickMIBR take Mirage
5. BanMIBR remove Ancient
6. Banfnatic remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (71% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
fnatic 67%MIBR 33%
The model gave 67% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
fnatic 29%MIBR 71%
The model gave 71% on MIBR — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 71%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2