Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#13 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Eternal Fire#30 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
50%71%
MIBR · 12 mapsedge Eternal Fire +21%Eternal Fire · 24 maps
CacheMIBR ban
64%59%
MIBR · 10 mapsedge MIBR +5%Eternal Fire · 23 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
53%41%
MIBR · 13 mapsedge MIBR +12%Eternal Fire · 18 maps
InfernoMIBR pick
65%53%
MIBR · 13 mapsedge MIBR +12%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%68%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +18%Eternal Fire · 18 maps
Anubispossible decider
57%53%
MIBR · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%50%
MIBR · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickMIBR take Inferno
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
6. BanMIBR remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (57% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
MIBR 26%Eternal Fire 74%
The model gave 74% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
MIBR 65%Eternal Fire 35%
The model gave 65% on MIBR — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 68%
Series resultEternal Fire 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2