PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Nemiga#21 in the world · loss 2:3series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:3
FURIA#3 in the world · win 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemiga pick
66%50%
Nemiga · 25 mapsedge Nemiga +16%FURIA · 14 maps
Dust2possible decider
65%58%
Nemiga · 22 mapsedge Nemiga +7%FURIA · 15 maps
MirageFURIA pick
65%55%
Nemiga · 19 mapsedge Nemiga +10%FURIA · 18 maps
CacheNemiga pick
68%56%
Nemiga · 18 mapsedge Nemiga +12%FURIA · 14 maps
NukeFURIA pick
68%56%
Nemiga · 18 mapsedge Nemiga +12%FURIA · 14 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
67%33%
Nemiga · 17 mapsedge Nemiga +34%FURIA · 2 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
60%73%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge FURIA +13%FURIA · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanFURIA remove Anubis
3. PickNemiga take Cache
4. PickFURIA take Nuke
5. PickNemiga take Ancient
6. PickFURIA take Mirage
DeciderDust2 (65% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Nemiga 68%FURIA 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
Nemiga 55%FURIA 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga — the map was taken by FURIA.
Cacheprediction missed2:13
Nemiga 66%FURIA 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga — the map was taken by FURIA.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Nemiga 58%FURIA 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Nemiga 63%FURIA 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 83%
Series resultFURIA 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 5