CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#100 in the world · win 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Johnny Speeds#81 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Johnny Speeds pick
56%56%
Fire Flux · 21 mapnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 5 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
50%31%
Fire Flux · 16 mapsedge Fire Flux +19%Johnny Speeds · 9 maps
CacheFire Flux pick
63%45%
Fire Flux · 15 mapsedge Fire Flux +18%Johnny Speeds · 7 maps
AnubisJohnny Speeds ban
68%40%
Fire Flux · 18 mapsedge Fire Flux +28%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
NukeFire Flux ban
47%50%
Fire Flux · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Johnny Speeds · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
65%67%
Fire Flux · 13 mapsnearly even -2%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
25%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +25%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Cache
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Dust2
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (65% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Fire Flux 50%Johnny Speeds 50%
The model gave 50% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 55%
Series resultFire Flux 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1