European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMisa ban
50%38%
TNC · 8 mapsedge TNC +12%Misa · 4 maps
NukeTNC pick
69%33%
TNC · 9 mapsedge TNC +36%Misa · 2 maps
AncientMisa ban
46%50%
TNC · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Misa · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
56%43%
TNC · 5 mapsedge TNC +13%Misa · 3 maps
Dust2Misa pick
38%63%
TNC · 4 mapsedge Misa +25%Misa · 4 maps
OverpassTNC ban
29%40%
TNC · 3 mapsedge Misa +11%Misa · 1 map
InfernoTNC ban
50%50%
TNC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickTNC take Nuke
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanTNC remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (56% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:11
TNC 35%Misa 65%
The model gave 65% on Misa — the map was taken by TNC.
Nukeprediction missed17:19
TNC 84%Misa 16%
The model gave 84% on TNC — the map was taken by Misa.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
TNC 63%Misa 37%
The model gave 63% on TNC — the map was taken by TNC.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC · 58%
Series resultTNC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3