Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#71 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spirit Academy#111 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
54%55%
Betclic · 9 mapsnearly even -1%Spirit Academy · 18 maps
AncientSpirit Academy pick
54%70%
Betclic · 9 mapsedge Spirit Academy +16%Spirit Academy · 16 maps
CacheBetclic pick
62%47%
Betclic · 9 mapsedge Betclic +15%Spirit Academy · 13 maps
MirageSpirit Academy ban
50%47%
Betclic · 8 mapsnearly even +3%Spirit Academy · 13 maps
AnubisSpirit Academy ban
38%67%
Betclic · 12 mapsedge Spirit Academy +29%Spirit Academy · 5 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
71%63%
Betclic · 3 mapsedge Betclic +8%Spirit Academy · 12 maps
DefaultBetclic ban
50%60%
Betclic · 0 mapsedge Spirit Academy +10%Spirit Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Default
2. BanSpirit Academy remove Mirage
3. PickBetclic take Cache
4. PickSpirit Academy take Ancient
5. BanSpirit Academy remove Anubis
6. BanBetclic remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (54% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Betclic 46%Spirit Academy 54%
The model gave 54% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Betclic 56%Spirit Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Betclic 64%Spirit Academy 36%
The model gave 64% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 51%
Series resultBetclic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3