Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#98 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omega#148 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
60%62%
GenOne · 31 mapnearly even -2%Omega · 17 maps
AncientOmega ban
63%36%
GenOne · 20 mapsedge GenOne +27%Omega · 7 maps
InfernoOmega pick
60%50%
GenOne · 16 mapsedge GenOne +10%Omega · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
45%57%
GenOne · 16 mapsedge Omega +12%Omega · 3 maps
CacheGenOne ban
33%44%
GenOne · 8 mapsedge Omega +11%Omega · 5 maps
AnubisOmega ban
75%50%
GenOne · 12 mapsedge GenOne +25%Omega · 0 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%62%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge Omega +12%Omega · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanOmega remove Anubis
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickOmega take Inferno
5. BanOmega remove Ancient
6. BanGenOne remove Cache
DeciderNuke (45% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
GenOne 45%Omega 55%
The model gave 55% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
GenOne 77%Omega 23%
The model gave 77% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
GenOne 38%Omega 62%
The model gave 62% on Omega — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 60%
Series resultGenOne 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3